Notes

1 - Gulf States Newsletter, October 18, 1999, Vol. 24, No. 62, Pg. 3

2 - There is a burgeoning social science literature on what has become known as civil society in the Middle East which richly illustrates popular desires for, as well as sporadic movement towards, political liberalization.

3 - Obviously, Iran and Turkey are not Arab states. Furthermore, although the Arab world does include such states as Somalia, Mauritania, Sudan, and others, in this analysis we are focusing on major regional actors, both political and economic, who are likely to have a significant impact, even indirectly, on the Arab-Israeli peace process and other regional affairs.

4 - The Gulf States Newsletter, vol. 24, number 614, June 28, 1999, page 6. For confirmation of this Qussai ascendant view, see “Qussai Profiled, “RFE/RL Iraq Report, July 23, 1999, page 5. On August 10, the London based Al-Hayat reported that Qussai had been named Deputy Commander of the Iraqi Army and apparent designated successor to his father.

5 - For an excellent discussion on the role of the military in Egypt, see Risa Brooks, Political-Military Relations and the Stability of Arab Regimes, Adelphi Paper 324, The Institute of Strategic Studies, London, 1998, pp 60-65.

6 - See for example, “Mubarak’s Illness,” Jane’s Foreign Report, number 2570, November 25, 1999, p.5-6 and “Still Waters on the Nile,” The Jerusalem Report, November 8, 1999, p.25.

7 - ”Young King Pursues Own Vision for Morocco.” The Washington Post, November 6, 1999, pp A1 and 32.

8 - “Aman’s Secret Report: The Middle East as Seen by Israel’s Military Intelligence Service,” Jane’s Foreign Report, number 2551, July 8, 1999, p.1.

9 - “Arafat’s New Successor: The Palestinian Leader Listened to Israeli’s Detainees,” Foreign Report, No. 254, May 6, 1999. pp. 102.

10 - “King Abdullah’s Doubts”, Jane’s Foreign Report, No. 2539, April 15, 1999. p.7.

11 - Douglas Jehl, “Saudi Arabia Grapples with King Fahd’s Succession,” International Herald Tribune, May 25, 1999, p.2.

12 - Gawdad Bahgat, “Succession Question in the Gulf Monarchies,” International Journal of Contemporary Sociology, 1999.

13 - This view is certainly not held by all observers. For example, Amos Perlmutter argues that Israel and the United States should wait until President Assad leaves the political scene before peace efforts are vigorously sought. This, despite the fact that Syria and Israel, with United States support, had already begun to make significant progress towards an Israel-Syrian and eventually Israeli-Lebanese peace. Indeed, it is widely believed that even Iraq and Israel have engaged in preliminary discussion, in large part because of progress on the Syrian-Israeli track. To argue that attempts by Israel to make peace with existing leaders is somehow impetuous, is not only inaccurate, but also not commensurate with the politics of Arab political succession as discussed in this paper. See, Amos Perlmutter, “Delay Peace With Syria,” The Los Angeles Times, December 8, 1999.